Friday, April 9, 2004 6:03AM EDT

Census finds residents fleeing Eastern N.C.

By MICHAEL EASTERBROOK, Staff Writer

Census estimates released Thursday underscore the economic malaise visiting Eastern North Carolina, confirming that many people are abandoning large parts of the region.

While the Triangle continued to grow, the population fell in 18 counties in North Carolina from April 2000 to July 2003, mostly in distressed areas of the east. That's in contrast to the 1990s, when only three counties -- Edgecombe, Bertie and Washington -- had no growth or lost population.

Jim Johnson, a demographer at UNC-Chapel Hill, blames the loss on the region's dismal job market.

"Eastern North Carolina is the most economically depressed region in the state," Johnson said. "I think what you see happening is people voting with their feet, looking for employment and an overall better quality of life for themselves and their families in other areas."

Hyde County, a northeastern county and one of the state's tiniest, had the biggest population drop in the period. Its population fell 4 percent to 5,567.

At the same time, the Triangle and other urban areas continued to attract residents. Of the 10 counties in North Carolina with the fastest growth rates, four were in the Triangle: Johnston, Chatham, Wake and Franklin. Some coastal counties also had rapid growth.

Wake County gained 67,834 people -- the largest numerical increase in the state and the 22nd largest in the nation. Newcomers from other countries, states and counties made up most of the growth.

Johnson says magnets such as Research Triangle Park, the universities and state government helped sustain the Triangle through the economic downturn.

"They're major draws for people," Johnson said. "It's a very attractive region."

Five North Carolina counties were among the 100 fastest-growing in the nation, by percentage: Union County, southeast of Charlotte, up 18 percent; the coastal counties of Currituck and Camden, up 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively; and Chatham and Johnston, each up roughly 12 percent.

Johnston added 14,878 residents for the top rate of growth among Triangle counties. Parts of the county are still rural, but the western area is heavily suburban.

"People can have country living but be close to city amenities," said Eddy Davis, planning and zoning manager for Johnston County.

The census estimates highlight the shift in North Carolina's population toward the urban Piedmont. More than 55 percent of the state's 8.4 million residents live in the Triangle, Triad and Charlotte regions. The three largest counties -- Mecklenburg, Wake and Guilford -- account for 1.9 million people, 22 percent of the state's population.

Eastern North Carolina, by contrast, may not recover for a long time, said Phillip Horne, president of the Greenville-based Foundation of Renewal for Eastern North Carolina, a privately funded group that promotes economic growth in the region.

The region has been hit hard by downturns in agriculture and manufacturing, Horne said.

"We were dependent upon manufacturing and agriculture in North Carolina for well over a century," he said. "It's going to take time for us to embrace other forms of entrepreneurship."

One of the counties that lost residents was Lenoir, about 70 miles southeast of Raleigh. The Census Bureau estimated that Lenoir's population declined by 1,044, nearly 2 percent.

Chris Humphrey, vice chairman of the Lenoir County commissioners, described the area as "stagnant" and said it's still struggling to recover from the decline of the tobacco industry.

"Residents go off to college and don't come back," Humphrey said. "We just don't have those high-paying jobs."

Demographers cautioned against reading too much into the numbers, noting that they are based on estimates and cover only three years, a relatively short span.

In addition, Bill Tillman, the state demographer, said Onslow County -- one of the counties that shows a population decline -- may not have come out behind. That's because the Census Bureau doesn't take into account the population flux that occurs in counties such as Onslow, home of Camp Lejeune, a Marine base where military personnel rotate in and out.

Census estimates show that Onslow, a coastal county about 100 miles southeast of Raleigh, lost 2,831 people. Jack Bright, a county commissioner, said that's hard to believe.

"Traffic on our major highways is bumper to bumper," Bright said. "You can't even get into the parking lot at Wal-Mart. The population has to be growing."